Leave the American way
Trump is losing the election, but not giving up. What’s next for him?
The whole world speaks of the defeat of American leader Donald Trump in the presidential election as of an accomplished fact, but he himself has not yet come to terms with it. The 45th President of the United States, who managed to turn American policy upside down during his years of rule, continues to fight for the “stolen” victory. With him are his children and tens of millions of American voters, for whom he became the hope for a change for the better. Against him are half of his Republican Party , liberal-minded residents of large cities and even his own wife. So we’ll talk now about the president, who is simultaneously loved and hated by the half of the country.
Not so fast
In November, in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, thousands of people went out on the streets of New York to participate in a huge celebration. Dancing, music, colorful costumes and banners in honor of Joe Biden’s victory in the presidential election – the supporters of the Democratic Party are confident that their candidate has bypassed Donald Trump. Key American media and IT companies agree with them, as well as a number of world leaders who have already congratulated Biden.
But all this does not convince Trump: his headquarters have repeatedly emphasized that opponents should not expect a traditional speech from the 45th president recognizing their defeat. The Republican not only refuses to admit defeat: he accuses the authorities of key states of fraud and directly claims that a second term was stolen from him using a mail vote. He is going to seek his own truth in the only possible way – through the Supreme Court, where he previously provided the conservative side with an advantage of two votes, having appointed the third judge during his term.
Despite this preponderance, the Supreme Court met the Republicans halfway in a rather restrained manner. The ballots received after the voting day were decided to be postponed, that is, the problem was simply frozen until the moment when it had a solution. Due to how autonomous the different American states are, in each individual case the proceedings will go their own way, so the future results of all this are completely unclear. Along with the trials for the coming month, Trump has planned a series of meetings with supporters, as if continuing his presidential campaign. In his last weeks in office he brings political plans to the end: he dismissed the head of the Pentagon, Mark Esper, and appointed the acting head of the National Center for Combating Terrorism Christopher Miller . Because of this, officials have fears that Trump is preparing an open or covert operation against Iran or other opponents.
The President continues to insist that he is right about the election on his Twitter page . At the same time, the administration of the social network marks almost every post of him as unfounded information.
Hope for his victory is very slim: there seem to be too many votes to be canceled or recounted for leadership in key contested states. As reported by Axios , all the president’s entourage, except for a small number of confidants, no longer believe that he will be able to prove his case. The middle and lower ranks in the White House, according to sources, only pretend that they are waiting for such an outcome, but in fact have long been sending resumes to other places – unlike the inner circle, after recognizing the defeat they may be left with nothing.
Having entered the Oval Office in 2016, the eccentric rich man has put a lot on his presidential status – and therefore it will hardly be easy for him to be left without it. This is, first of all, about the unprecedented fame that he gained as head of the United States: no matter how the courts end, he will not disappear from the screens.
Even if, as a result of all the proceedings, the incumbent president is recognized as a loser, he will not give up the opinion that the Democrats were playing a dishonest game – after all, tens of millions of Americans share this point of view with him. Trump is likely to question the legitimacy of the Democratic president, thereby expressing and exacerbating the concerns of those Americans who no longer believe in the state.
After leaving office, the current head of state will once again become just a private person – and, perhaps, finally lose his main mouthpiece – the super popular Twitter account . Ban had already called liberal policy, but apparently, the company believes that to do so with the president worthless.
Even if Trump is still banned , his 88 million subscribers will not be left without their favorite source of information: he plans to create his own TV channel. After the largest Conservative channel, Fox, joined the liberal media in its assessment of the election, the 45th president realized that he would need a completely loyal media platform.
It will be useful to him not only to promote his values, but also simply to protect him: after leaving the White House, Trump will lose his immunity and risk getting a whole heap of lawsuits. For example , Senator Kamala Harris, who will become vice-president under Biden, predicted during the primary that the Justice Department would likely prosecute a Republican for abuse of power and tax evasion.
Whether he will actually be tried is unclear: the possibility of criminal punishment for the people’s choice could undermine faith in the state system even more than Trump’s alleged dirty deeds themselves. Some experts propose to create a commission that will only record presidential offenses without bringing charges.
Regardless of how brutally persecuted he is, an active media presence will come in handy for Trump. With sufficient coverage, he will surely be able to convince the audience that any suspicions in his attitude are only the intrigues of opponents, means in their political struggle.
In this situation, his sons and daughter will definitely help him: Trump’s children from his first marriage were actively involved in his political career from the very beginning. They do not leave him now.
Middle son Eric, whose wife was a campaign consultant, attended a press conference where Trump announced the election fraud. At the same time, the eldest son – 42-year-old Donald Jr. – flew to a press conference in Atlanta, where he spoke to his father’s supporters, echoing him about the Democratic deception of voters. Both sons ran their father’s corporation during their presidential term and were active on social media as “more aggressive versions” of the head of state.
As far as journalists know, Donald Jr. has plans for his own political career – he is loved by the electorate more than anyone else in the family. As is typical of future candidates for high office, he publishes political books. In them, he criticizes the culture of political correctness and the democratic establishment – in particular, he calls Joe Biden nothing more than “a monster from the Washington swamp.”
Eric and Donald’s sister, Ivanka, the presidential advisor, together with them was engaged in fundraising for the presidential campaign of her father, but she was always moderate in expression. So, in connection with the scandal at the elections, she refrained from criticizing the Democrats and peacefully called everyone to an honest vote. According to popular rumors, it was she and her husband, presidential adviser Jared Kushner , who could convey to the head of state the idea that he should admit defeat – however, in public, she remains an active supporter of her father.
Ivanka is also predicted a political future – she is called one of the potential candidates for the role of the first woman president of the United States. She really isn’t likely to go back to just working on her fashion firm. As the Financial Times notes at the same time , where she and her husband will not be able to return – this is most of the secular living rooms of New York, where they used to be dear guests. The liberal elites in the president’s hometown are radically opposed to Trump and his supporters, and this attitude is spreading to his family members too.
Melania , the first lady of the United States, also supports the president on social networks and appears at all events where her presence is necessary – smiles at the right moments, waves her hand at the camera and hugs her husband. However, journalists have long been convinced that in their 15-year-old marriage there have been no sincere feelings for a long time – even such modest ones as can be expected from a model’s marriage with a billionaire 25 years older than her.
Simultaneously with the news of the imminent defeat of the 45th president, rumors leaked to the press that Melania was going to leave him. Trump allegedly would not have allowed her to do this during his presidency – he would have found some way to avenge such damage to the image of a family man – and now she has such an opportunity.
It is known that, as on both previous times, the businessman entered into a marriage contract with his wife. His first chosen one (the mother of Eric, Donald and Ivanka) made a splash in 1992: leaving him, she sued $ 25 million, the Greenwich estate and an annual payment for children in the amount of $ 650 thousand. Since then, Trump’s marriage contracts have included a nondisclosure clause – and it is not known what conditions Melania is connected with .
In the past few days, sources from the president’s headquarters have started talking about his possible re-election after Joe Biden’s term – in 2024. It is possible that if the head of the Trump family discovers such far-reaching plans, the divorce will have to be postponed for a long time.
What the conservatives have preserved
Not only Melania , but the entire US Republican Party was inextricably linked with Donald Trump . While some conservative politicians, such as Senator Mitt Romney , have already come out in support of Biden, mostly Republicans have been slow to contradict their leader. For many of them, especially in the whitest states, opposing Trump would be political suicide – although the Democrat won the most votes in election history, the president is not far behind him.
Popular love for Trump flared up back in 2015 – when he unexpectedly “turned the game” in the primary election of the Republican candidate. His predecessors – in particular, George W. Bush – were voted for by a substantial percentage of Hispanic immigrants and their descendants. Given their large percentage of the population in border states, other conservative candidates have been slow to talk about the harmful effects of migration.
Trump, from the very beginning, took a “xenophobic” position: in foreign policy, he criticized international alliances, in domestic policy, he unashamedly branded migrants as drug dealers and rapists and promised to protect American citizens from their uncontrolled influx. This gave him the image of a racist among the liberals, but attracted a significant part of the Republican electorate to him – Americans with European roots, religious, without a degree.
But the main element of its appeal was still overt populism. Trump, with his simple and familiar manner of speaking in sincere, biting language, attracted voters who felt excluded from political life. By that time, they, people of the working and middle class, did not see their representatives not only among the politically correct Democrats, but also among the Republicans. Not a single sleek metropolitan politician could cause the same sympathy as Trump in the agricultural regions of the country – no matter how much he talked about tax cuts and a decrease in the role of the state.
Trump did not aim at the economic side of what is conventionally called “right-wing views”: he ended up in the White House due to the fatigue of citizens from the elites in general. Conservative or liberal views do not really play too much of a role among his supporters – they are worried that the government is cut off from the people and does not hear them.
In 2016, people just wanted someone to throw a stone in a shop window.
Karl Rove strategic advisor to George W. Bush
Although in the end Trump did carry out conservative measures, delighting his religious electorate, half of the party conservatives are not happy with him, to put it mildly. However, with his departure, what is called ” Trumpism ” – the new national-populist clothes of the Republican Party, in which its members had to dress because of the popularity of the 45th president among the people, will not go anywhere .
Nation after nationalist
The Americans are unlikely to be able to return to their old policies and outdated rhetoric. It turns out that the changes introduced by the 45th President are just the beginning of a big transformation of the Republican Party.
However, she will have to overcome her “racist” image – the proportion of the non-white population in the United States is growing, and pretty soon Republicans will not be able to win the presidential elections, relying so heavily on white votes. The trail that Trump left in political reality is, of course, broader than just one party: his election victory and the years of his rule are a period of the most serious split in American society.
As in the case of the conservative agenda, Trump did not create public sentiments – he just found them, correctly highlighted them and used their wave to come to power. The way in which deep American conservatives voted unanimously for him twice (in contrast to the “democratic” big cities, districts with small settlements – in the overwhelming majority for him) shows that popular discontent was formed even under Barack Obama . And, as soon as Biden is about to restore his policies, the resentment will only grow.
The exit polls also say that polarization will continue on the opposite side : two-thirds of Biden’s supporters admitted to them that they voted, in fact, not for him, but namely “against Donald Trump.” Against this backdrop, the icon of the new generation of Democrats – Senator Alexandra Ocasio- Cortez, known for her left-wing views, has already proposed compiling a complete list of Trump administration officials and ostracizing them. She supported the project “Accountability for Trump “, the slogan of which is supposedly directed against war criminals: “We will never forget what they did.”
Of course, it is difficult to imagine that people who worked for the legally elected president will be really squeezed out of American society, but the businessman’s victory seemed unlikely four years ago eagerly. Likewise, with predictions about how Trump will continue to participate in public life, whether he will give up his claims to win and whether he will recognize Biden – any of them may turn out to be absolutely disastrous or unexpectedly come true. However, one thing can be stated: the appearance of this man forever changed the policy of the United States – and therefore the situation around the world. With his arrival, a new state of affairs has formed – and after Trump, it will not go anywhere.